[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 14N20W
TO 3N23W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS AHEAD OF A SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING OFF WEST AFRICA. FOR NOW...THE WAVES IS
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUYANA...
SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA...ANALYZED FROM 13N52W TO 4N56W
MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE OF FOUND
W OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ...GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA W OF 45W FROM
6N-13N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM
17N61W TO 10N65W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING OVER
AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...LIMITING CONVECTION ONLY
TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND FROM 13N-17N W OF 58W TO THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SENEGAL OVER WEST AFRICA ALONG
14N16W INTO THE ATLC NEAR 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES E OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 4N26W 5N40W TO 8N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA AND SIERRA
LEONE E OF 16W FROM 6N-11N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SUPPORTING A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N86W. THIS
BENIGN FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTICED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON VISIBLE NIGHT CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...
GENERATING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING ALL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND LEAVING THE BASIN
ALMOST CLEAR OF ANY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW BASIN...
WHERE A 1008 MB LOW WOBBLES OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W.
THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ALONG 10N...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM ACROSS THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 75W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...W OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE
WAVE REMAINS TO THE NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW
AND SE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 37N64W...HOWEVER THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS OUR AREA
ALONG 32N65W TO 28N66W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150
NM AHEAD OF IT. THE TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE ESE OF
THIS FEATURE...A DISSIPATING 1016 MB LOW SPINS NEAR 27N60W
WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N28W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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