[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS EXTENDS FROM 12N47W TO 2N52W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DOES NOW SHOW
ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE WAVE LOCATION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 45W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N59W TO 9N63W
MOVING NW 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE
COMING FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE WAVE AMPLIFICATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND AFRICA AT 19N00W TO
16N10W TO THE COAST AT 13N17W TO 6N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG
6N23W 3N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND AFRICA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
10W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 5W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 27W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N89W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
DOMINATES THE GULF N OF 24N. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER N FLORIDA...AND S FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 89W-92W. THE N GULF N OF 28N E OF 92W IS
ALSO UNDER A LAYER OF MODERATE TO DENSE SMOKE AS INDICATED BY
NOAA SSD FIRE DETECTION SYSTEM. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA.
SEE ABOVE. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 9N82W.
THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM N
COLOMBIA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 9N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 80W-85W. FURTHER
E...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 67W-73W.
ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND
E CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 14N70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N65W 27N71W. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS FURTHER E AT 25N60W.
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N25W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N69W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTERED IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 64W-67W.


F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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