[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N45W TO 4N48W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE AND AT THE TRAILING EDGE OF
A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH THE PLACEMENT BASED ON CONSISTENCY.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N56W TO 9N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED  WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA ALONG 85W MOVING W OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ENTERING THE E ATLC
NEAR 13N17W TO 6N23W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W 3N39W
6N51W TO 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 43W-54W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 9N15W TO 3N24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
TAMPA INTO THE GULF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 23N89W CONTINUING
INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 90W LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE N GULF IS UNDER A LAYER OF
MODERATE TO DENSE SMOKE AS INDICATED BY NOAA SSD FIRE DETECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...ARE FROM 25N
TO OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO 21N BETWEEN 85W-90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO OVER
THE S GULF WED THEN WILL MOVE BACK N BY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N81W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A WEAK 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM 13N82W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N81W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE INTO
THE W CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN AFTER TUE REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THU TO THE W CARIBBEAN LATE FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N73W EXTENDING AN UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W SW TO 27N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 20N69W TO BEYOND 32N63W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180
NM E OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 25N. THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N40W SW ALONG 26N49W INTO
THE TROPICS TO NEAR 13N57W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA IS A WEAK
1016 MB LOW NEAR 24N59W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E ALONG
26N48W THEN ENE TO 31N37W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND SURROUNDING THE LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N25W SW
TO 2048W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE E ALONG 24N TONIGHT THROUGH THU. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE SE FROM THE CAROLINAS TUE
PUSHING ACROSS THE W ATLC TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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