[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 9N44W 6N46W 3N47W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 56W. IT IS
NOT EASY TO KNOW EXACTLY WHICH PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE
WAVE AND WHAT IS JUST WITH THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N53W 13N57W 9N59W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN EASTERN NICARAGUA MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT.
THE WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT
HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. RAINSHOWERS STILL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NICARAGUA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE WITHIN
40 NM OF THE COASTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA ALONG
81W ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ABOVE IT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 18W
TO 15N10W 15N15W AND 5N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N25W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1S53W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMERGING
OFF AFRICA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT IS NEAR 32N73W 28N75W 26N80W WITH A TROUGH...AND
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N85W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 29N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
29N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W INCLUDING NEAR BERMUDA.
RESULTANT BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 31N72W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF
90W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS HELPING TO KEEP
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF 23N80W
18N85W 16N88W...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM CUBA
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...RAINSHOWERS ARE IN BELIZE ALSO. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NICARAGUA WITH POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
WITHIN 40 NM OF THE COASTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO
PANAMA ALONG 81W ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF A SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ABOVE IT.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TRADEWIND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
ARE TO THE EAST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 75 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N65W 24N66W 20N67W
19N70W REACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N42W 27N45W 20N54W 11N55W.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N59W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N39W 28N44W 26N50W 24N59W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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