[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS NOT DEFINITIVE ON
THE WAVE LOCATION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N46W TO 5N48W MOVING NW 10-15 KT.
WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THE WAVE AMPLIFICATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND AFRICA AT 16N00W TO
14N10W TO THE COAST AT 13N17W TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG
4N30W 8N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND AFRICA FROM 12N-16N E OF 13W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 8W-14W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 30W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AT 29N88W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
DOMINATES THE GULF N OF 22N. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND LOUISIANA...
MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA AT 29N83W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 22N85W TO 19N90W TO 16N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND
HISPANIOLA...AND INLAND HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. 15-20
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N71W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS AT 28N77W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N75W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 76W-80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N
OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 66W-71W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N36W
TO 24N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
48W-55W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N24W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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