[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 36W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY OR OTHER
FORECASTING TOOLS AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS.
HOWEVER...IT IS FORECASTED TO BECOME STRONGER AND RE-EMERGE IN
24 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N42W 11N45W TO 7N47W MOVING NW 10-15
KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
BETWEEN 6N-13N AS INDICATED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE AS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BROAD AMPLIFICATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 40W AND THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 72
HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC OFF W AFRICA NEAR
14N16W TO 8N21W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W 9N45W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N E OF 16W TO INLAND
OVER SIERRA LEONE AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-38W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-45W AND FROM THE ITCZ S TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF CENTERED NEAR 28N85W
DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND OVER
THE SE GULF S OF 25W GENERATING A SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N89W TO 25N92W. A
NARROW BAND OF OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
OFF THE THE N GULF COAST FROM CAPE SAN BLAS FLORIDA TO THE
CHANDELEUR ISLANDS OFF LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 85W THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE NW INTO THE FAR SE GULF TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE ON SUN.
A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT S AND E INTO THE N CENTRAL
GULF ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA JUST W
OF SANTA CLARA AT 11/1500 UTC ALONG 22N84W TO 18N86W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA
WITH DRY STABLE AIR OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W GIVING
THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N82W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE NW INTO THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SUN MORNING. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT
WILL RE-EMERGE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ON SUN AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF
75W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW CENTERED JUST N OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 28N78W AT 11/1500 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S ACROSS CUBA JUST W OF SANTA CLARA NEAR 23N81W INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1011 MB
LOW NE ALONG 30N74W TO 29N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N73W
TO 24N68W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W ANCHORED OVER
HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 40W-55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS TO 31N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO 24N48W
THEN W TO A WEAKENING 1015 MB LOW NEAR 23N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 47W-57W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF
20N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
BETWEEN MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. THE W ATLC LOW AND
TROUGHS WILL SHIFT NE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN N OF THE AREA BY
SUN EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH ALONG 24N BY TUE. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WED.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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