[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N45W 8N47W 3N48W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF 6N52W 9N47W 12N42W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 16N
TO 14N16W 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N20W 3N287W 8N45W
INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 14W AND
18W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHWESTERN
SURINAME TO NORTHERN GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...THANKS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N85W. THIS CENTER HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW PASSES THROUGH THE
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED/DISSIPATED/AND DEVELOPED AGAIN
LATER IN THE PERIPHERAL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
28N85W CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND THE REST OF FLORIDA.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 65W INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA

A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 27N68W TO 28N73W TO A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N78W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF
ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 18N85W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS FROM CUBA TO 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEING PUSHED FROM HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...BELIZE...
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CUBA. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA OF A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS IS TAKING PLACE IN THE GULF OF URABA OF
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 80W ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COAST.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 67W/68W FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE BEYOND 32N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 58W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N39W TO 31N46W 23N48W.
A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 31N52W TO 18N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N45W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N41W 23N47W...AND FROM
20N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N38W
23N57W SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N23W TO 23N36W AND 18N44W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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