[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 102354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 9N31W TO
2N33W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ REGION FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 3N44W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WAVE ALSO LIES JUST W OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
39W-42W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 18N TO
15N13W SWD ACROSS THE GUINEA COAST TO 8N17W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N17W ALONG 4N24W 8N41W 5N51W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 21W-26W...AND FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL GULF COAST N OF 30N BETWEEN 85W-90W MAINLY ACROSS
ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 87W-90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP ACROSS CUBA AND ARE
EXTENDING N INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A FEW STRONG STORMS
HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA. THE ACTIVITY OVER
THE FAR SE GULF IS DUE TO ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTER ASSOCIATED
WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE NOW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING N FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING FROM A 1016 MB HIGH OVER MISSISSIPPI...AND DRY AIR ALOFT
WRAPPING AROUND THE WRN AND SRN SIDES OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT
A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF AS
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NW WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW ATLC ACROSS WRN CUBA TO NW
HONDURAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS PARALLEL
AND 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N TO CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP ACROSS CUBA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST E OF PUERTO RICO. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NW INTO THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO THE SW ATLC WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM NEAR 30N74W TO WRN CUBA NEAR
23N80W. THIS AREA LIES UNDER A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W.
THE COMBINATION OF THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE FORCING
IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF CUB
TO 25N APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W-79W. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE N OR NNE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS TO THE NE CENTERED NEAR 30N65W. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N42W 25N48W TO A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
22N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH S OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 34N24W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS N OF 24N CENTERED NEAR 29N28W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E OF SPAIN ACROSS WRN AFRICA TO NEAR 21N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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