[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W TO THE SOUTH
OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N39W 8N42W 4N44W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 9N
BETWEEN 38W AND 51W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 16N
TO 15N14W 5N13W 4N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N17W 3N30W
5N37W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATER FROM LAND
TO 8N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W...AND IN GUYANA WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS
OF 5N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...THANKS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N85W. THIS CENTER HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD GRADUALLY
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA...WITH A COMPARATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W
INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N81W...ABOUT 130 NM
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER CUBA AND SURROUNDING WATERS AND THE BAHAMAS
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N53W 18N60W 20N66W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING SOME ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THIS CLOUDINESS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 17N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO THE 20N81W LOW CENTER...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN
PART OF ANDROS ISLAND...TO 25N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
IS ACROSS THE AREA IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 24N54W TO 20N56W.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N50W TO A 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N58W...TO 20N61W AND 19N65W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN
51W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 25N47W 20N58W 19N65W. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS ALONG 33N25W 24N34W 18N42W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM 26N53W TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER TO 33N78W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N43W 19N65W
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG
21N39W 16N43W 12N53W.


F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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