[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 11N30W TO
4N34W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS JUST W OF A RIDGE OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 15N TO
16N13W SWD TO THE GUINEA COAST AT 10N14W CONTINUING TO NEAR
5N20W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W ALONG 8N31W 6N45W 8N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL GULF COAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 89W-94W MAINLY ACROSS SRN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N TO 24N
BETWEEN 85W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
FLARED UP OVER WRN CUBA AND THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS FINALLY SHIFTING N. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF S FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING FROM A 1017 MB HIGH OVER MISSISSIPPI...AND DRY AIR ALOFT
WRAPPING AROUND THE WRN AND SRN SIDES OF AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W WITH UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SRN HALF OF FLORIDA DUE TO MOISTURE
FLOWING AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT A
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF AS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN DRIFTS N WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE
TO FLOW AROUND A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 19N84W. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CUBA THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 18N85W. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 76W-80W
MAINLY IMPACTING CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO ACROSS WRN CUBA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCED BY
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM NW TO SE
INTRUDING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE CAUSING THERE TO BE TWO
ANTI-CYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N76W...AND THE
SECOND N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS ANOTHER BURST OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. BOTH
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA HAVE RECEIVED HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N E OF 68W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE S
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS S OF 16N
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN ATLC AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N70W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA TO N OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 26N BETWEEN
68W-80W. THE ACTIVITY IS STRONGEST JUST N OF CUBA. SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NEAR 25N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO THE E IS SUPPORTING ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W ALONG
27N50W THROUGH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N60W TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 24N AND FROM 18N-24N
BETWEEN 53W-59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES
ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N OF ERN S
AMERICA TO JUST W OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE
E EXTENDING FROM PORTUGAL TO NEAR 20N32W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED OVER THE W AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 16N16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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