[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N30W TO 3N34W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE ITCZ ENGULF THE WAVE AXIS WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N
OF 8N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS STAYS INLAND EXTENDING ACROSS WEST
AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 5N15W TO 4N23W TO 6N28W...THEN
IT RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N34W ENDING NEAR 5N42W.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-29W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENTERING THE
FAR SE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 26N E OF 86W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD/ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. ESE 5-15 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...
TURNING S OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN. THIS CHANGE IN WIND ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NE BASIN ARE
GENERATING VERY LIMITED-ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE N
CENTRAL BASIN N OF 27N BETWEEN 86W-92W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE ACTIVITY IN THE SE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AND N
CENTRAL BASIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
DRIFTS TO THE NORTH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF HAITI AND S OF CUBA...N OF 18N BETWEEN
72W-85W. THIS CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ON THE ELONGATED 1011 MB LOW
NEAR 20N83W. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE LOW CENTER AND ENDING NEAR
17N85W. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINS STILL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
IN SECTIONS OF HAITI...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ITS AXIS SW
INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N E OF 67W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NE OUT OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
SUPPORTING A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30W70W PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC N OF 26N W OF 55W. TO
THE SW OF THIS BENIGN FEATURE....A BROAD/ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 22N78W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-80W.
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION FURTHER
SUPPORTS THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
TROUGH AXIS DRIFT NORTH. A BROAD/DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE
NW ATLC SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 22N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N45W 26N55W TO
THE LOW CENTER AND ENDING JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W.
THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N27. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA E OF 40W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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