[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N81W...ABOUT 180 NM TO
THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS STILL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN SECTIONS
OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N76W FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
21N70W BEYOND 23N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EVENTUALLY REACHING
30N53W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 65W AND
82W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N59W INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE ONLY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 16N
TO 14N14W TO 6N31W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N31W TO 4N53W IN NORTHERN
FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 9W
AND 17W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING FROM 1N TO THE
AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 4W AND 8W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...THANKS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N89W IN THE CENTER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TO THE
U.S.A. GULF COAST PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CURVING AROUND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 92W...WITH THE
LINGERING BROAD LOW PRESSURE. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED FOR THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY A BIT FLAT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
89W/90W FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST TO 26N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1008 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR
18N81W IS GRABBING ALL THE ATTENTION AT THE MOMENT. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ENVELOPES THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 82W...AND
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA FROM 6N TO 12N IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 70W AND
80W. IT HAS BEEN RAINING NEARLY EVERYWHERE AROUND THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN DURING THE LAST FOUR TO FIVE DAYS OR MORE
IN THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 25N68W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 62W...MOVING AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N71W. THE SOUTHERN END OF
A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 32N67W...EMANATING FROM A 1002 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 41N57W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR 31N40W. THIS TROUGH IS WEAKENING IN THE
MIDDLE OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 19N76W FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 21N70W BEYOND 23N64W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EVENTUALLY REACHING 30N53W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N51W 24N53W...AND FROM 19N TO
22N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N33W
20N42W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT
STARTS AT A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N25W TO
23N40W AND 22N57W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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