[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W...ABOUT 190 NM
TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND 130 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS STILL MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN SECTIONS OF HAITI...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N75W 21N70W 24N64W...FROM JUST
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HAITI TO THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N79W
18N74W 18N70W 19N67W 21N64W. THE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA
FROM JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 160 NM TO THE NORTH OF ANEGADA PASSAGE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N58W INTO NORTHERN
GUYANA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GUYANA...POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 13N
TO 15N13W TO 7N18W 6N27W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N27W TO 5N53W IN
NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA...WITHIN
150 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 3W AND 7W...AND FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 31W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...THANKS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N89W IN THE CENTER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL WATERS.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY A BIT FLAT.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM 22N TO 25N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1007 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR
18N82W IS GRABBING ALL THE ATTENTION AT THE MOMENT. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ENVELOPES THE AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BASIN...FROM
JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE
IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE GULF OF
URABA AND NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. IT HAS BEEN RAINING NEARLY
EVERYWHERE AROUND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN DURING THE
LAST 48 TO 72 HOURS...IN THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N60W 29N62W 25N68W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 34N50W TO 31N53W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
34N60W TO 32N63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 25N52W 21N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 28N35W 20N41W. A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINS NEAR 29N41W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W 22N46W TO 26N62W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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