[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ELONGATED 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N82W. THIS LOW CENTER IS CAUGHT UP IN THE
BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 75W-85W...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA
...JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA
...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 1154 TO INLAND OVER SURINAME NEAR
4N55W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED
ON THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTER NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...DRY
AIR ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION...LEAVING JUST A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN SENEGAL IN WEST
AFRICA...ENTERING THE EAST ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 7N22W TO 6N31W
WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO 6N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 30W. SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN S OF 26N...EMBEDDED IN
A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS NOTICED
OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AT SURFACE...A VERY BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC 5-15 KT WINDS
FLOWING AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. VERY LIMITED-ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE VISIBLE. DESPITE THE OVERALL
ACTIVITY...DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF FEW
ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 94.5W-96W...AND
ALSO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BETWEEN 88W-89W. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NE GULF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE WNW CARIBBEAN...FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 75W-85W...
FOCUSED ON THE 1008 MB LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE
ABOVE. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
UP TO 15 KT...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED FROM N OF
JAMAICA NEAR 19N78W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE LOW AND INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR EASTERN HONDURAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS N AND NE OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS
NOTED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N E OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE WATERS OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NE OUT OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH/LOW IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AS DISSIPATING ALONG
32N48W TO 26N57W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG
OR NEAR THE BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH REFLECTS A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 29N43W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM 31N40W TO 25N41W. THESE
TWO FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 36W-43W. IN
THE MEAN TIME...SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC
AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. AS THIS HIGH MOVES SE...IT PUSHES A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N61W TO 28N72W TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG
THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 18N56W TO 15N60W...ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS NE OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 58W-63W. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N27. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA E OF 35W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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