[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W...ABOUT 190 NM TO
THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND 100 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
CAYMAN. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM......AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
SECTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... JAMAICA...AND CUBA
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW CENTER IS CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD
MONSOONAL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA
AND TO THE EAST OF LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N51W TO NORTHEASTERN
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ANY
NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM LAND TO 13N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N55W 15N58W 12N60W
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 360 NM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF 24N50W 13N61W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N
TO 15N13W TO 7N24W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 7N24W 6N40W TO 7N52W.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF AFRICA...BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W...AND FROM
5N10W TO 10N15W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
18W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO...THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A FLORIDA
PANHANDLE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. EARLIER PRECIPITATION ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY HAS DISSIPATED. A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 27N88W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY
A BIT FLAT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1007 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR
18N82W IS GRABBING ALL THE ATTENTION AT THE MOMENT. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ENVELOPES THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE BASIN...
MOSTLY IN THE WATERS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING THE ISLANDS ALSO...
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 74W. IT HAS BEEN RAINING NEARLY
EVERYWHERE AROUND THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN DURING THE LAST
24 TO 48 HOURS...MOSTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 41N60W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 27N80W 27N63W BEYOND 33N50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 31N49W TO 27N56W 25N64W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS DISCERNIBLE ONLY BY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A 1015 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N40W 23N46W 18N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N40W 26N41W 24N44W 24N50W
21N58W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 20W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 26N34W
TO 19N44W TO 21N53W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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