[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N81W...ABOUT 130 NM
SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN. THIS LOW CENTER IS CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD
MONSOONAL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE WATERS THAT SURROUND JAMAICA WITHIN 180 NM FROM EAST TO
SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 75W.
THE EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER NICARAGUA FROM
SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED/DISSIPATED. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 70W.

SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.  HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN SECTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N46W 7N44W 3N43W
MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS EMBEDDED
IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N53W 12N56W 9N57W
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN
53W AND 58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 15N
TO 18N12W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N20W 6N40W 6N50W INTO
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 9N17W...AND FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND
30W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N76W TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W...TO
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1007 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE IS GRABBING ALL
THE ATTENTION AT THE MOMENT. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ISLANDS TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND
65W. THE 1007 MB LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 38N59W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W 25N50W 20N67W TOWARD THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N60W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS DISCERNIBLE ONLY BY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 28N64W
28N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W TO 22N53W 21N66W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 30W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 25N37W TO 18N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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