[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SW OF
JAMAICA NEAR 17N80W. THIS BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD MONSOONAL FLOW WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW ACROSS NICARAGUA AND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCATED WELL SW OF PANAMA IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS STRETCHING
AS FAR EAST AS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. MOST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION FALLS BETWEEN 60W-80W AND CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF VERY MARGINAL ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS LOCATED ALOFT OVER THIS SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE
VENEZUELA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W AND THIS IS LIKELY
AIDING IN ENHANCEMENT OF A FEW OF THOSE ISOLATED TSTMS. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
VICINITY OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HEAVY RAINFALL
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF
CONCERN FOR EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 02N38W TO 10N40W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS THIS
EVENING WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING A
POLEWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-43W. THE WAVE ALSO REMAINS SOUTH OF AN
EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WHICH IS CONFINING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE S OF 08N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N52W TO 09N58W MOVING NW AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN ATLC RIDGE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING POLEWARD BY A
BROAD WESTERN ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 23N. MODERATELY DRY
NW FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
07N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N20W TO 06N39W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-14N BETWEEN 08W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N-09N BETWEEN 25W-31W...AND FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 35W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N92W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1016 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N89W TO 28N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN LOUISIANA. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 86W-90W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 79W IS PROVIDING THE EASTERN GULF
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE MOISTURE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO ADVECT N-NE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS...AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE TEXAS
COAST NEAR 28N96W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG 28N
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
09N61W W-NW TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W. THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE SPECIAL FEATURES
1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N80W WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL
NICARAGUA ALONG 13N TO THE LOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A
MOISTENING OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 83W-88W...INCLUDING A LARGE
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EAST OF THE LOW AND SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 60W-80W AND ALONG WITH THE AID OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 79W
AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND SUBSIDENT NW FLOW ALOFT W OF
70W. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
29N79W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W. THE FRONT
EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N60W TO 26N70W. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...HOWEVER ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
FARTHER TO THE SE...W-SW UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM A 1012 MB NEAR 26N52W TO 20N57W TO 19N64W ARE GENERATING A
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
18N-23N BETWEEN 57W-78W. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED
EAST OF THIS AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 36W-57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE AZORES ALONG 30W TO 15N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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