[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N41W TO 2N36W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N54W TO 6N58W MOVING WNW 10 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE AS
DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOME
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 62W/63W HAS MOVED NW AND MERGED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THUS HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN OVER W AFRICA AT
20N0W TO 16N10W TO 15N15W TO THE E ATLANTIC AT 7N22W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES W TO SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 5N40W 6N56W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 14-17N BETWEEN 2W-4W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 26W-29W...FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 34W-40W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 42W-46W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N90W 27N95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 89W-91W. ELSEWHERE
...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM
21N-23N BETWEEN 84W-88W. FLORIDA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N93W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS FLORIDA. EXPECT
THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE WITH 24 HOURS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
TO REMAINING OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA AT 17N79W. THIS LOW IS
EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA AT 18N76W
TO 17N79W TO NICARAGUA AT 13N83W TO EL SALVADOR AT 14N90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
83W-86W...AND OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 79W-83W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 64W-73W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT N OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N57W 29N60W 27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N56W 19N64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 18N-25N
BETWEEN 45W-48W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N
E OF 42W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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