[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051207
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 8N33W TO 3N32W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH NO CLEAR
INDICATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOW A
SLIGHT INDICATION BUT THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
A BROAD BAND OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ALONG THE ITCZ. ANY
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATE WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N51W TO 7N55W MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL TURNING. ANY
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATE WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W/63W S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE HAS PASSED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
13N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF SW AFRICA NEAR 13N16W TO 7N23W WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N38W 6N53W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SW AFRICA WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 5N13W 9N14W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 40W-44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N15W
TO 6N20W...WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-28W AND
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN
46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W GULF W OF 87W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE SE CONUS AND THE NE GULF N OF 26N WITH AXIS OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE GULF
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING
MUCH OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK 1015 MB LOW THAT AT 05/0900
UTC IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 29N91W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
HOUSTON GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N84W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND OVER
APALACHEE BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 23N BETWEEN
87W-90W WHERE MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS BEGINNING TO STREAM N
COMPLIMENTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE THEN REFORM JUST
N ON WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG
THE COAST OF N VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W EXTENDING AN AXIS WNW TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND A SECOND AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA ALONG 17N78W 13N81W TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 74W-78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 67-72W...S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND TO THE
COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 75-79W...FROM 17N TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS BETWEEN 82-85W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 81W-87W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HAITI. SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE AS A TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MON BEFORE LIFTING N AS
A TROUGH TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 70W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W
EXTENDING ALONG 28N65W TO 27N72W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 28N76W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT.
TO THE SE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N52W THROUGH A
WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 24N56W TO NEAR 22N65W. THE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN ENE ALONG 21N50W TO 30N40W PROVIDING
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250/275 NM OF LINE FROM
21N54W TO 27N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W-45W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE AREA E
OF 40W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN FURTHER E THIS EVENING. THE W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO ALONG 29N TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE MON
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC MON THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net