[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 8N33W TO 3N30W MOVING SW 10 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH NO CLEAR INDICATION ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...UPPER LEVEL WINDS...OR TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N52W TO 5N56W MOVING SW 15-20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL TURNING. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE
WAVE S OF 9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N61W TO 8N62W MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 13N E OF 59W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF SW AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO 8N22W WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N39W TO 6N53W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE S OF 8N E OF 10W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 37W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 8N13W TO 5N23W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W GULF W OF 89W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE SE CONUS TO OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N ANCHORED OVER S
ALABAMA AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE GULF ANCHORED IN
THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE
GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK 1016 MB LOW THAT AT 05/0300 UTC IS CENTERED
BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND THE ALABAMA STATE LINE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ALONG 30N89W TO INLAND
OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N88W TO JUST
INLAND OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE
FLORIDA W COAST EXTENDING FROM 25N83W 28N83W TO INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE N GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG
THE COAST OF N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W EXTENDING AN AXIS WNW TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND A SECOND AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE
IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N79W WITH A
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA. DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 67W-85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF
14N E OF 67W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES COMPLIMENTS OF THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH REACHING FROM
THE LOW TO NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA. THESE FEATURES WILL LINGER IN
THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT LIFTING NE AS A SURFACE TROUGH SUN NIGHT
THROUGH THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
MON BEFORE MERGING WITH THE TAIL END OF THE ABOVE DISCUSSED
SURFACE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH COVERS W ATLC W OF 50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING ALONG 28N66W TO 28N75W
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT. TO
THE SE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N52W THROUGH A
WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 23N57W TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
20N64W. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA ALONG 20N50W TO
27N40W PROVIDING DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 150/175 NM
OF LINE FROM 21N62W TO 26N44W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC N OF 13N BETWEEN 20W-50W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AZORES
LEAVING THE AREA E OF 40W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE
MON AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC WATERS
MON THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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