[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N32W TO 06N29W MOVING W-NW AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS THIS
EVENING WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING A
POLEWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-30W. THE WAVE ALSO REMAINS EAST OF THE
BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N48W TO 08N53W MOVING W-NW AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN ATLC RIDGE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING POLEWARD BY A
BROAD WESTERN ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 24N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED S OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-60W...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INTERIOR FRENCH GUIANA...SURINAME...AND
GUYANA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N58W TO 10N62W MOVING W-NW AT
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO PROGRESSING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN ATLC RIDGE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N BETWEEN 56W-66W...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INTERIOR VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
09N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N22W TO 06N29W TO 04N40W TO 07N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 12W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE WESTERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N92W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAKENING
1016 MB SURFACE LOW THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED INLAND ACROSS NE
MEXICO THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 24N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
S-SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N96W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 21N-24N W OF 95W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 25N. AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED SOUTH OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W-91W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 30N BETWEEN 83W-86W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W
W-NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 16N78W WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA
ALONG 13N TO THE LOW. MODERATELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 20N...INCLUDING INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. EAST OF
THE LOW AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 70W-80W AND ALONG WITH THE AID
OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF
12N W OF 80W. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND VERY BROAD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLC W
OF 50W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N61W. THE FRONT EXTENDS W-SW ALONG 29N70W TO 30N76W
THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN
GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...HOWEVER ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER
SOUTH...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
ALONG 24N53W 22N58W TO 20N64W ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-25N
BETWEEN 55W-72W. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF
THIS AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING
FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN 40W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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