[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURE...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N78W...120 NM S
OF JAMAICA. ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 11N79W 9N84W. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
72W-80W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N47W TO 8N52W MOVING WNW 10-15
KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE
IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE AXIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AND
THUS THE CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE S AFFECTING THE COASTAL
WATERS OF GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA S OF 9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N58 TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N61W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS WELL DEFINED INVERTED
V STRUCTURE S OF 12N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA WITHIN 90
NM. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 11N32W TO
6N30W. CONVECTION REMAINS ATTACHED TO ITCZ.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SENEGAL IN WEST AFRICA...ENTERING
THE EAST ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO
7N28W...RESUMING SW OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N31W AND CONTINUING
W ALONG 4N37W TO 6N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF SW AFRICA FROM 5N-10N E OF 21W TO INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE
AND LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1016 MB
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N97W MOVING
INLAND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSE TO 20N96W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 95W
FROM 20N-25N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SE CONUS
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS A 1008 MB LOW SITTING
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION ABOVE. BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
BETWEEN 72W-80W INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE SPECIAL
FEATURE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL ENTER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD/ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLC
INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 32N63W 29N71W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W.
THIS BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM S ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 28N65W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC LEAVING THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 57W UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS OBSERVED ALONG A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE N CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
19N-25N BETWEEN 50W-63W. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY A WEAK JET STREAK WITH AXIS FROM 28N50W TO 23N65W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC E OF 47W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS S OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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