[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROUGHLY CENTERED 120 NM S OF
JAMAICA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE PANAMA CANAL
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM HAITI NEAR 19N72W TO 11N79W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING A BROADER AREA N OF 16N TO ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 65W-78W AND S OF 16N BETWEEN 69W-82W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AND THUS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS WELL DEFINED S OF 12N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-60W. THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE SAT/EARLY SUN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E ATLC NEAR
15N17W TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N26W 4N45W
3N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA BETWEEN 7.5N-10N.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 8N W
OF 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 24N94W SUPPORTING A 1012
MB SURFACE LOW THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE W ACROSS THE SW GULF AND
IS CENTERED AT 04/0300 UTC NEAR 24N95W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S ALONG 23N95W TO 21N96W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE N GULF N OF 25N ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE GULF ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 28N86W AT 04/0300 UTC. A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO MISSISSIPPI AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE 1012 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE S REACHING TO ALONG 26N EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS THE AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N63W.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE
SPECIAL FEATURE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT/EARLY SUN BEFORE LIFTING NE AS A
TROUGH MON THROUGH WED AND COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE
N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN BERMUDA TO INLAND
OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR SAVANNAH GEORGIA AT 04/0000 UTC
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 30N65W TO BEYOND 32N61W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC N OF 25N UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 28N54W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH EXTENDING FROM 24N61W TO OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM OF
LINE FROM ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 19N69W TO 23N51W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE NE EXTENDING FROM 30N43W TO
26N52W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF 40W PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
NW ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY SUN NIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS S OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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