[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 15N MOVING W
AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
AREA OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 20W-40W FROM 5N-20N. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 11N MOVING W
AT 15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY
ALONG THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF E CUBA TO E
PANAMA...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 68W-75W. IT HAS BEEN RAINING IN MANY AREAS OF
HISPANIOLA FOR A LARGE PART OF THE LAST 24 HOURS THUS LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE OCCURRING. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ON THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 76W-79W. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE IS APPROACHING A SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND WILL MERGE WITH THAT SYSTEM WITHIN 24 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH TRAVERSES W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
18N TO 15N8W TO SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENTS W FROM
8N13W TO THE E ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AT 6N34W THEN CONTINUES TO
THE W ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AT 6N51W AND FINALLY CONTINUES
TO GUYANA AT 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 11W-16W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA S OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N90W MOVING SLOWLY W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 90W-93W AND WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 10-15 KT CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILS EXCEPT OVER THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW
TO MOVE W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1007
MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 14N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 79W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 79W-82W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 83W. EXPECT THE SURFACE
LOW TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE
LOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS ENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 27N46W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
16N-25N BETWEEN 30W-55W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
N OF 20N E OF 35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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