[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N34W 8N31W MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO READILY DISCERNIBLE DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W...FROM JAMAICA
TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SOME WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
COVER HISPANIOLA. IT HAS BEEN RAINING IN POSSIBLY MANY AREAS
OF HISPANIOLA FOR A LARGE PART OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N82W TO 12N82W.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST
48 HOURS OR SO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N77W 11N80W 9N81W...AND FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19W
TO 15N10W TO 7N14W JUST OFFSHORE. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 7N FROM 16W
TO 29W...BROKEN UP BY THE 16N34W 8N31W TROPICAL WAVE...AND
CONTINUING FROM 1S33W TO 1N46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL ALONG
THE EQUATOR AT 50W...AND THEN TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN
10W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W...AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 10N60W 8N50W 5N40W 7N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 88W/89W FROM 22N TO COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N ALONG
THE TROUGH. THIS IS THE SAME LOW THAT MOVED FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
THAT SURROUNDS THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW CENTER BREAKS THE MONOTONY
OF THE DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN
53W AND 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA TO
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N82W TO 12N82W.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR MOST OF
THE LAST 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND
75W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SOME WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES COVER HISPANIOLA. IT HAS BEEN RAINING IN POSSIBLY
MANY AREAS OF HISPANIOLA FOR A LARGE PART OF THE LAST 24 HOURS.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N77W 11N80W 9N81W...AND FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. RAINSHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN AND AROUND
PUERTO RICO...FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC WAS 0.92 INCHES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 80W.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N55W.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N. CYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES AROUND THE CENTER FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W.
A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N47W BEYOND 32N41W. CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 27N45W 28N40W BEYOND 32N37W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N76W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W 29N26W 18N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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