[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE E OF 30W FROM 5N-19N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH CONVECTION
PRIMARILY ALONG THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 66W-75W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING A SURFACE
LOW AND TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING
WATERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH TRAVERSES W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 16N TO 15N10W TO 12N16W. THE ITCZ IS W OF THE E ATLANTIC
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N26W TO 4N35W TO 5N44W TO FRENCH GUIANA AT
4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
AFRICA S OF THE MONSOON AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 4W-14W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 27W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 29N84W MOVING RAPIDLY W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 83W-86W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE
OVER THE N GULF. ELSEWHERE...CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
5-10 KT WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE LOW TO BE LOCATED
OVER THE W GULF S OF LOUISIANA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE
ABOVE. A 1008 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 12N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AROUND THE LOW
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W. MORE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W.
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT N AND DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AND MERGE
WITH THE SURFACE LOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS ENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N73W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
23N48W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF
40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N42W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT
THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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