[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO THE
EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 20 MPH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS LOW CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THAT BASICALLY MEANS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING FIRST IN ADVANCE OF WHERE
THE ACTUAL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER FLORIDA FROM 28N TO 29N FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES
OVER LAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE READ
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N. NO READILY DISCERNIBLE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W
AND 69W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 81W FROM 10N TO 17N. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 12N. THE LOW CENTER/TROUGH FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW
EXACTLY WHICH FEATURE IS THE SOLE CONTRIBUTOR TO THE NEARBY
PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 16W
TO 15N10W TO 11N17W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 7N23W 3N36W 4N42W 4N53W
INTO FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 5N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND 60W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH
OF 17N90W 21N80W BEYOND 24N70W 26N60W...EXTENDING FROM GUATEMALA
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 29N69W TO 23N86W
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 22N TO 27N AT
01/1200 UTC WAS NOT DISCERNIBLE AT 01/1500 UTC. THE SWIRL OF
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 29N69W TO 23N86W IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N90W 21N80W BEYOND 24N70W
26N60W...EXTENDING FROM GUATEMALA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
23N69W 21N72W 19N74W. THIS COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THIS AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 74W AND 80W IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
CLOSE TO THE 77W CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE AND AN 81W SURFACE
TROUGH. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE 81W TROUGH
NEAR 12N. THE LOW CENTER/TROUGH FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW EXACTLY WHICH FEATURE IS
THE SOLE CONTRIBUTOR TO THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ONCE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 29N69W TO 23N86W IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N90W 21N80W BEYOND 24N70W
26N60W...EXTENDING FROM GUATEMALA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N43W.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 20N39W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
20N75W 22N67W 22N50W 24N34W BEYOND 32N25W. THESE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD IN
PRETTY MUCH ONE CONTINUOUS BAND. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N34W TO
21N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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