[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011221 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

AMENDED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A FAST MOVING 1017 MB SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ABOUT 20 MPH.
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 29N TO 31N
BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS IN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
PLEASE READ BULLETINS AND FORECASTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND
THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO ALIGNS WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AND HAS BEEN JUMPED FARTHER W TO ALIGN
BETTER WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 64W-71W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SW CARIBBEAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WRN CARIBBEAN. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS
COLOMBIA NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM SRN GUINEA NEAR 10N13W ALONG 9N22W 5N32W
5N46W 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-38W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY NLY-NELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA
TO THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A VERY DRY AIR MASS SITS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM
A 1023 MB HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA. A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR 24N85W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N86W TO 24N85W...AS OF 0900 UTC. 15-20 KT E-SE
SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH STRONG WINDS AROUND THE
WRN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM E OF
GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW TOWARDS NRN FLORIDA AND
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 78W-81W NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 91W...AND A 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N81W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
TO THE E NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
68W S OF 17N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N-17N BETWEEN 64W-71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE E ATLC. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W MOVES W TO MERGE WITH
THE STATIONARY SURFACE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W
PROGRESSES WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FAST MOVING 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 31N77W
MOVING SW TOWARDS FLORIDA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE LOW CENTER. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-74W IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 29N63W
TO S FLORIDA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE S OF 27N WITH AXIS ALONG
55W. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MAY BE
ENHANCING SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE
BAHAMAS...WRN CUBA...AND HAITI. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH NE OF
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 32N55W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N46W 27N44W
24N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM A 1034 MB HIGH N OF SPAIN PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS DOWN 31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON/MT




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