[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINES CIRCULATION AROUND THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO ALIGNS WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE
IS ILL-DEFINED BESIDES A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY THAT IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ AXIS
NEAR THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN. A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0128 UTC INDICATES THAT THE
WAVE AXIS MAY ACTUALLY BE FARTHER W NEAR 69W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 17N BETWEEN
62W-70W WITH STRONG CONVECTION OVER INLAND VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SW CARIBBEAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS
WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
ALREADY PRESENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALL AROUND THE WAVE
AXIS. STRONGER CONVECTION IS INLAND NEAR THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 7N22W 4N34W 4N52W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-40W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY NLY-NELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA
TO THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A VERY DRY AIR MASS SITS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM
A 1023 MB ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER. A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR 25N83W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N84W TO 25N84W...AS OF 0300 UTC. 10-25 KT E-SE
SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM E OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW TOWARDS NRN FLORIDA AND
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-15N
BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
72W-84W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W. A
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO ANALYZED NEAR 12N79W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
65W S OF 16N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM S OF
17N BETWEEN 62W-72W. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W MOVES W AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS STATIONARY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W
PROGRESSES WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FAST MOVING 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 32N75W
MOVING SW TOWARDS FLORIDA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE W OF 26N BETWEEN 50W-73W IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N61W
TO S FLORIDA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE S OF 27N WITH AXIS ALONG
55W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH NE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 31N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF
THE LOW CENTER ALONG 30N49W 27N46W 20N47W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
26N-31N BETWEEN 42W-46W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
EXTENDING FROM A 1034 MB HIGH N OF SPAIN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS DOWN 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON











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