[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N53W TO 15N52W TO 13N48W MOVING
W AT 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N48W. AN AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-18N BETWEEN 46W-53W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 43W-55W. THIS WAVE WARRANTS
WATCHING AS SOME MODELS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 23N34W TO 17N34W TO 12N32W MOVING
W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
IN THE VICINITY OF 22N32W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH
A RELATIVELY ROBUST 700 MB TROUGH ALONG 33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
23N84W TO 11N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LOWER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AND NEAR 700 MB MODEL EVALUATION DEPICT THE WAVE WELL.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE S
OF 22N BETWEEN 75W-87W. A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE IS FURTHER S
AT 10N82W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXTEND FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 75W-80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N0W TO 17N10W TO THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 12N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N21W TO 14N28W TO 11N40W TO THE COAST OF
SURINAME AT 9N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF SURINAME
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N87W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N96W TO
19N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TAMPICO MEXICO FROM
19N-23N BETWEEN 94W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-93W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
MOVE W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO
EXTEND FROM S GEORGIA TO SE LOUISIANA AND PRODUCE CONVECTION
OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
70W-74W. FURTHERMORE...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N
COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO COSTA RICA PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-86W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. ANOTHER 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR
39N35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N58W
PRODUCING MORE FAIR WEATHER. ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA THE
CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT AND VISIBLE METEOSAT-9
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST FROM 16N-30N
E OF 30W. ELSEWHERE...THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE
PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE BASIN. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA SE OF SENEGAL THAT IS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 10W-17W. OF
INTEREST IN IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 33N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE CENTER FROM 29N-34N
BETWEEN 58W-62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net