[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE REMNANT LOW OF DON IS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT HAS MOVED INLAND WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND MEXICO S OF 27N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC
ANALYZED FROM 19N49W TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE NEAR 11N45W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW PRODUCT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
IS WELL OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  THIS WAVE WARRANTS WATCHING AS SOME MODELS FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO
RICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 37W-50W.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM
23N30W TO 13N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS N OF 18N. THIS WAVE IS
LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW-MID MOISTURE SURGE
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...ANALYZED
FROM 23N83W TO 12N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW PRODUCT. BROAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE DATA. THE WAVE
IS JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED ON THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM
OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA-BISSAU IN WEST AFRICA
ENTERING THE ATLC ALONG 12N16W TO 10N20W TO 11N24W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 12N30W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 12N34W TO 13N44W...THEN RESUMES AGAIN S OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N47W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA IN SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-14N BETWEEN 30W-60W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW OF DON IS NOW INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT HAS MOVED INLAND WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO S OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. JUST A
SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS
FROM NE TO SW ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE SE CONUS. THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OF 84W WITH SCATTERED WEAK
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING A
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N
E OF 68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ASIDE THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION...A
STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION
AREA THIS EVENING...ANCHORED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N35W AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW TO NEAR 28N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net