[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DON WAS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AT 0300 UTC
CENTERED INLAND OVER THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27.2N 97.5W. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT LANDFALL WAS 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO DON HAS MOVED INLAND WITH
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO S OF 27N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC
ANALYZED FROM 19N49W TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE NEAR 11N45W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW PRODUCT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS WAVE WARRANTS WATCHING AS SOME MODELS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT
WITH A THREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 37W-50W.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM
23N29W TO 13N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS N OF 18N. THIS WAVE IS
LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW-MID MOISTURE SURGE
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ANALYZED
FROM 21N80W TO 12N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW PRODUCT. BROAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE DATA. THE WAVE
IS JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED ON THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GREAT PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA-BISSAU IN WEST AFRICA
...ENTERING THE ATLC ALONG 12N17W TO 11N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM THIS POINT TO 13N29W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
12N33W TO 10N40W...THEN RESUMES AGAIN S OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 9N45W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME IN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
30W-50W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON IS NOW INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO DON HAS MOVED INLAND WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO S OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. JUST A
SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 95W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS
FROM NE TO SW ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM
ALONG WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING
A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 72W.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N
E OF 68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ASIDE THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION...A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
EVENING...ANCHORED WEST OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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