[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 292337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DON IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 97.1W AT 30/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...OR ABOUT 85
MI...135 KM NNE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING W-NW AT 14 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT DON REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM A LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A DISORGANIZED MASS OF STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 95W-100W. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI
WITHIN A FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N45W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE NEAR 10N42W AND CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED BENEATH THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 15N41W. AN AREA OF
INCREASED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE
AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN
35W-48W. THIS WAVE WARRANTS WATCHING AS SOME MODELS FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM
22N26W TO 11N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DISTINCT AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 20N77W
TO 11N77W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BOTH LOWER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AND NEAR 700 MB MODEL EVALUATION INDICATES THE WAVE
REMAINS BROAD. THIS IS CONFIRMED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AS VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MAXIMIZED S OF 20N
BETWEEN 67W-85W. THE WAVE IS JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 70W-83W TO INCLUDE HAITI...JAMAICA...AND E
CUBA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N0W TO 17N10W TO THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 12N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N21W TO 14N28W TO 11N40W TO THE COAST OF
SURINAME AT 9N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF SURINAME
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DON CONTINUES TO TRACK W-NW TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS COASTLINE. SEE ABOVE. BROWNSVILLE AND MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY WITH LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE CONVECTION OVER BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS WITH STRONGER CONVECTION FURTHER S OVER NE MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N84W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER N
COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND NICARAGUA DUE TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH. FURTHER N SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND S MEXICO
BETWEEN 83W-100W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N35W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N56W THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD ALONG 30N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...THE
TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE
BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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