[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON IS NEAR 25.0N 93.0W AT
29/0600 UTC. THIS POSITION FOR DON ALSO IS ABOUT 335 MILES/
540 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
FOR DON IS ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR DON IS ISSUED
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN A 65 NM RADIUS OF 24N93W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N35W 12N38W TO 8N39W.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 8N39W. AN INVEST WAS
STARTED ON THE 8N39W LOW PRESSURE CENTER FOR THE PURPOSE OF
STARTING GUIDANCE ON IT. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...AND FROM
10N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W...AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 37W
AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N20W 15N22W 11N22W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN
20W AND 24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N68W. IT
CROSSES THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 16N70W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COASTAL NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
11N70W. HISPANIOLA IS IN THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 18N
TO 23N10W TO 19N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N24W TO 11N29W
TO 12N36W...AND FROM 8N41W INTO NORTH CENTRAL FRENCH GUIANA.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DON THE MAIN ATTRACTION AT THIS MOMENT.
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ALONG 84W/85W FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SOUTHWARD
BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. THE WESTERN END OF
A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES FLORIDA ALONG 29N INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N68W. IT
CROSSES THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 16N70W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COASTAL NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
11N70W. HISPANIOLA IS IN THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 16N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 14N80W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 80W AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH
OF 15N AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MAJORITY OF THE ATLC BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N39W.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N50W THEN WESTWARD
ALONG 30N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
ELSEWHERE...THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER
PRODUCERS IN THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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