[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON IS NEAR 24.0N 89.8W AT 28/1200
UTC. THE POSITION OF DON IS ABOUT 545 MILES/874 KM TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. DON IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR DON ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY IS UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER
THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN
88W AND 90W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM 17N INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS IN THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 96W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 17N32W TO 12N34W
TO 6N33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
33W AND 39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD TO THE GUYANA/VENEZUELA BORDER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N65W...
PASSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO TO 16N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA ALONG 67W/68W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
22N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N73W...ABOUT
120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 21N83W TO 18N80W TO 16N70W AND 12N67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 23N
TO 24N5W 20N15W 12N16W TO 12N26W AND 5N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 5N38W TO 4N44W...AND BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 4N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DON IS ATTRACTING ALL THE ATTENTION AT THE
MOMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N82W CENTRAL
FLORIDA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND WESTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS
INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N100W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH
OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
23N65W...PASSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO TO 16N67W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA ALONG 67W/68W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 16N73W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO 9N78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS HAITI FROM 20N72W TO
15N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 21N83W TO 18N80W
TO 16N70W AND 12N67W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE
WEST OF 84W...EASILY MAY BE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM DON. THE
MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE
BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 13N AT THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA TO 10N75W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN COLOMBIA FROM THE
BORDER WITH PANAMA TO 4N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N82W CENTRAL FLORIDA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN
CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N55W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N57W 19N62W AND BEYOND PUERTO
RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 26N26W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 31N53W 27N63W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TOWARD THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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