[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280617
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON IS NEAR 22.6N 88.2W AT
28/0600 UTC. THE POSITION OF DON IS ABOUT 680 MILES/1100 KM
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. DON IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR DON ARE
ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE FORECAST/ADVISORY IS UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 23N. STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS HAS DISSIPATED. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BORDER WITH NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 16N29W TO 12N32W
TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 8N32W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N55W 11N58W INTO
NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 8N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN
55W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N64W...PASSING
JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 15N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 23N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
17N72W...ABOUT 70 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE JUST
TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA TO 16N73W 11N68W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N
TO 22N10W 20N15W 12N16W TO 12N29W AND 5N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 5N41W TO 4N45W...ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA...
TO 6N60W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DON IS ATTRACTING ALL THE ATTENTION AT THE
MOMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N81W NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER FLORIDA AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH
OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N64W...PASSING
JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 15N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 23N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
17N72W...ABOUT 70 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO 9N77W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 20N70W TO
15N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA TO 16N73W
11N68W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 83W...EASILY MAY
BE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM DON. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE
WEST OF 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST
OF 77W...COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N55W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N58W 20N64W AND BEYOND PUERTO
RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 33N22W TO 28N25W AND 25N28W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N46W TO 30N55W 28N65W...ACROSS
FLORIDA TO 28N83W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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