[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 272345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM DON IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 87.0W AT 27/2100 UTC
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO...OR ABOUT 755 MI...
1220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLEW
OVER THE SYSTEM AND FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER. WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT
OR THURSDAY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 86W-89W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N27W TO
8N30W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N30W. THE SYSTEM IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N61W TO 11N65W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE
SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 58W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 66W-69W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N0W TO 23N8W TO 19N13W TO
13N15W TO THE ATLANTIC AT 12N26W TO 8N30W TO 5N39W. THE ITCZ
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 5N39W TO FRENCH GUIANA IN SOUTH AMERICA AT
5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 14W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S. DON IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING WNW. SEE ABOVE. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CLUSTERS
OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF
26N...OVER FLORIDA...AND OVER S MEXICO S OF 18N. FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE W GULF S OF 28N AND W OF 91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT T.S. DON TO BE THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF...N FLORIDA...
AND THE N GULF STATES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N68W TO
14N70W MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM PUERTO RICO TO HAITI FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 66W-72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DUE
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER E HONDURAS...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
82W-87W. EXPECT MOST AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN TO HAVE SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SYSTEMS MOVE W WITH THE
TRADEWINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO 32N53W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. FAIR WEATHER IS
NOTED N OF 22N E OF 75W TO AFRICA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE MOVE W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA




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