[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF
OF MEXICO ANALYZED FROM 25N87W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 22N87W TO
INLAND OVER NORTHERN BELIZE NEAR 17N89W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN
81W-88W. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM
15N27W TO AN ELONGATED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 8N30W MOVING W AT ABOUT
10 KT. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN A
REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ABOUT 6 HOURS
AGO...AND IT IS NOW ANALYZED FROM 21N61W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE FAR SE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES S OF 16N BETWEEN 58W-63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 13N23W...SW ALONG 8N30W 5N35W THEN
W TO NEAR 6N43W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT.
SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N E
OF 36W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF SURINAME IN SOUTH AMERICA...ANALYZED FROM
12N52W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 52W-57W...ASSOCIATED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N53W

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NE FLOW ALOFT COVER MUCH OF THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE NOTICED OVER THE WRN
HALF OF THE BASIN S OF 27N. HOWEVER...AN UPPER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION LINGERS NEAR THE COASTAL CITY OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION. MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA...AS INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 140 NM ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST STATES BETWEEN 83W-95W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED TO A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SE CONUS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BRINGING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE FAR SE GULF
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 25N E OF 88W. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...READ THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES FAIRLY DRY ON TPW PRODUCT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS N OF 18N W OF 82W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS CUBA AND THE
NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM...
READ THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER
THE FAR SW BASIN...WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE N CENTRAL BASIN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
NEAR 18N68W TO 14N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO...AND IT IS NOW ANALYZED
FROM 21N61W TO 10N63W...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE FAR SE BASIN INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES S OF 16N E OF 63W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTICED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA N OF
20N WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1029 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 40N28W AND 35N36W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA REACHING THE
FAR W ATLC. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100-130 NM
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GENERATED BY
DIFFLUENCE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE FAR W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N53W WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net