[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N83W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 20N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/0000 UTC WAS 1.67 INCHES. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING ABOUT
125 MILES TO THE EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. ANYONE WHO LIVES IN THE AREA AND/OR
ANYONE WHO HAS INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N21W 12N25W.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT WITH THIS WAVE. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N47W 7N49W 4N50W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 TO 45 NM
RADIUS OF 9N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND
54W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N56W 15N58W 11N59W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N53W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 13N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N
TO 19N9W TO 21N13W 8N30W 6N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N38W
TO 5N45W AND 10N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
6N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST
OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST
OF 75W...COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE REMNANT OF A SMALL
YUCATAN CHANNEL CYCLONIC CENTER...TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 21N95W. EARLIER YUCATAN PENINSULA PRECIPITATION
HAS WEAKENED. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN MEXICO
FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO TOWARD THE MEXICO
BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND BEYOND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THESE FEATURES ARE
PUSHING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF
90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 84W AND
87W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS 1.67 INCHES. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO 13N.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N56W 15N58W 11N59W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N53W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 13N60W NEAR BARBADOS. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS 0.48 INCHES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST
OF 75W...COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH
32N24W TO 29N27W AND 27N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 27N30W
TO 32N40W AND 32N47W. A SECOND TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 32N47W...
THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
25N53W...TO 13N60W NEAR BARBADOS AT THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/0000 UTC WAS 0.48 INCHES. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N
TO 27N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N40W TO 31N50W 28N60W 29N73W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ALONG 29N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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