[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN NW
FROM 25N83W TO 19N84W TO 14N84W MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ADDITIONAL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 76W-85W. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
GENERATE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER SATURATED-HIGH
TERRAIN AND RIVERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 17N21W TO
11N23W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FROM 19N54W
TO 9N56W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N0W TO 17N7W TO THE AFRICAN
COAST AT 18N16W TO 8N27W TO 7N38W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO
6N45W TO 13N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 24W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
FROM 11N45W TO 5N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 46W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF
27N...OVER FLORIDA...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE SW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA
AND THE N GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N64W TO
13N66W MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 62W-67W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND E NICARAGUA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
EXPECT MOST AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN TO HAVE SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SYSTEMS MOVE W WITH THE
TRADEWINDS. .

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW TO 32N45W TO THE N BAHAMAS. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED N OF 20N E
OF 75W TO AFRICA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AN SURFACE TROUGH TO
BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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