[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W
10N20W 8N27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W...
ACROSS CUBA ALONG 81W...PASSING OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO
16N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALSO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N
TO 18N6W TO 19N13W 15N18W AND 8N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N26W TO 8N38W AND 5N49W...BECOMING INDISTINCT. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 10N20W 8N27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N78W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 78W AND FLORIDA/GEORGIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN ANDROS
ISLAND AND CUBA...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR
21N94W...ABOUT 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STILL ANOTHER
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 22N104W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR
26N80W...ACROSS CUBA ALONG 81W...PASSING OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TO 16N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALSO.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N79W IN
BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA AND CUBA. THE SOUTHERN END OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 26N55W AND 23N55W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES THE SAINT LUCIA CHANNEL IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND
THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER...INCLUDING IN THE GOLFO DE
URABA OF COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N78W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 78W AND FLORIDA/GEORGIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN ANDROS
ISLAND AND CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES
TO 31N30W 31N45W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N52W TO 23N55W TO THE SAINT LUCIA CHANNEL IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
26N TO 27N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W...AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN
60W AND 68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 33N41W TO 29N51W 27N66W AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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