[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVE IS IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W...FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W
AND 45W...FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W...AND FROM
6N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 26N79W...BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA ALONG 80W...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA PAST THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...TO 16N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 76W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALSO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 20N
TO 18N7W TO 20N14W 13N20W AND 8N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N27W TO 8N35W 8N39W AND 7N46W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER
7N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 6N25W...AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND
36W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N78W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM ANDROS ISLAND TO 28N BETWEEN 77W AND THE
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N93W...ABOUT 150 NM TO
THE WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ON TOP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO HAVE DISSIPATED SINCE
THEN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STILL ANOTHER
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 22N103W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 26N79W...BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA ALONG 80W...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA PAST THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...TO 16N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO
THE WEST OF 76W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALSO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N79W IN BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN
JAMAICA AND CUBA. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N78W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM ANDROS ISLAND TO 28N BETWEEN 77W AND THE
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N32W TO 30N45W...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N51W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N60W.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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