[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED ALONG 29W
S OF 11N MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
TO THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM
18N41W TO 11N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF
13N.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ANALYZED FROM 24N78W
TO 16N81W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 75W-83W. THIS
AREA INCLUDES THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE WATERS
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD GENERATE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
SATURATED-HIGH TERRAIN AND RIVERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 17N16W TO 10N19W TO 7N27W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N30W TO 8N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-140 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH E OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NE FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COVER MUCH OF THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT.
THUS...THIS ENVIRONMENT ONLY ALLOWS FOR ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS
DOTTING THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER CONVECTION IS FOUND
OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF
LOUISIANA. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30-50 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW 5-15
KT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 22N79W TO NEAR 16N81W. THIS WAVE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-83W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS CUBA.
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD GENERATE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
SATURATED-HIGH TERRAIN AND RIVERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS SAME WAVE MOVED ACROSS HISPANIOLA A FEW DAYS AGO...LEAVING
RAINFALL TOTALS ACCUMULATED OF UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN... WITHIN 70 NM
OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH EASTERLY 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...ANCHORED BY A BROAD AND STRONG
1029 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N26W. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA REACHING THE FAR W ATLC AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDS AXIS TO NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS ALONG 24N78W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 75W-83W...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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