[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251622
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH OF
9N. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE LAST FEW
DAYS. ASCAT WINDS FROM 24/2300 UTC SHOWED WAVE IN THAT FIELD.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVE IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE LAST FEW
DAYS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN
40W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N73W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N75W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND HISPANIOLA AND CUBA FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR
SO. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED FOR
THE MOMENT. REMNANT RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NOW
ARE FROM JAMAICA NEAR 17N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
76W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 15N
BETWEEN 80W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS AREA ALREADY HAS RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
EASILY MAY BE SATURATED ALREADY. RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CUBA AS THE WAVE AND MOISTURE CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 23N
TO 20N3W TO 18N14W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N28W TO
7N35W AND 7N40W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 7N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 6N25W...AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN
30W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N77W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W IN FLORIDA. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS
IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE ABOUT
60 NM OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
JUST HAVE STARTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS ALONG 92W. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N88W 25N93W 22N95W 20N95W.
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N/28N. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N73W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N75W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND HISPANIOLA AND CUBA FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR
SO. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED FOR
THE MOMENT. REMNANT RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NOW
ARE FROM JAMAICA NEAR 17N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
76W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 15N
BETWEEN 80W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS AREA ALREADY HAS RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
EASILY MAY BE SATURATED ALREADY. RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CUBA AS THE WAVE AND MOISTURE CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N77W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W IN FLORIDA. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO A SMALL WEAKENING CYCLONIC CENTER THAT HAS MOVED
OFF THE COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE ABOUT 60 NM OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N28W BY
THE AZORES...TO A 29N47W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 17N58W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 10N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N37W TO 30N41W 28N55W 28N70W...BEYOND FLORIDA ALONG
28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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