[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N38W 14N40W 9N42W.
BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 24/1200 UTC.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W
AND 45W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N72W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N74W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
WATERS FROM 19N TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
20N85W CYCLONIC CENTER BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS BETWEEN 85W
AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF
17N BETWEEN THE 68W AND JAMAICA. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS AREA ALREADY HAS RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
EASILY MAY BE SATURATED ALREADY. RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CUBA AS THE WAVE AND MOISTURE CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N
TO 20N6W TO 12N20W AND 6N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N29W TO
10N39W AND 10N44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 10N TO 12N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST...AND FROM
5N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND
24W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N76W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO
A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER IN EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...TO ANOTHER
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N99W
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE WEST OF WEST
TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO
THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH OF 27N/28N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. THAT FLOW IS MOVING AROUND 27N/28N. A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N86W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. REMNANT
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND IN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA FROM 21N TO SOUTHERN
COASTAL CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND 86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N72W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N74W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
WATERS FROM 19N TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N85W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 20N85W CYCLONIC CENTER BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS
BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO
THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE 68W AND JAMAICA. MUCH OF THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS OR SO. THIS AREA ALREADY HAS RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME OF THE HIGH TERRAIN EASILY MAY BE SATURATED ALREADY.
RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS CUBA AS THE WAVE AND
MOISTURE CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N76W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER IN EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...TO ANOTHER
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N28W BY THE
AZORES...TO A 30N47W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 18N58W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N39W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N59W...TO 28N72W...ACROSS FLORIDA AND
BEYOND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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