[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N38W TO 17N33W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO 21N BETWEEN 29W-37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N68W TO 24N66W MOVING W-NW AT
15 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD AND
WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN
65W-72W THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
06N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N23W TO 06N28W TO 11N37W TO 09N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 24N. THIS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REACHES
TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC NEAR 30N70W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N81W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE SE GULF PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N
BETWEEN 87W-92W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO HOLD STRONG ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THIS
MORNING...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
SW GULF S OF 20N W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
20N81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF EASTERN CUBA
FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 75W-81W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
22N68W THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 72W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W.
ELSEWHERE...ACTIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 10N...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PANAMA AND NW COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 41N25W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
30N55W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N81W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
25N80W. OTHERWISE THE AZORES HIGH PRESSURE IS LARGE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER N OF 18N E OF 60W AND N OF
25N W OF 60W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W
AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION S OF 25N BETWEEN 65W-72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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