[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N36W TO 16N34W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO 19N BETWEEN 29W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N67W TO 20N66W MOVING W-NW AT
15 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 62W-72W
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
07N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N20W TO 06N24W TO 11N36W TO 09N42W TO 07N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 25N. THIS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REACHES
TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC NEAR 30N70W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE SE GULF PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS W OF 90W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOWEVER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD STRONG
ALONG 29N THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WESTERN GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A FEW OVERNIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF WESTERN CUBA FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 81W-86W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 22N68W THAT
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W. ELSEWHERE...THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PANAMA AND NW COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N27W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
31N59W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N85W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. OTHERWISE THE AZORES HIGH PRESSURE IS LARGE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER N OF 17N E OF 60W
AND N OF 24N W OF 60W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 66W AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION S OF 23N BETWEEN 62W-72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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