[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N32W TO 9N37W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE
AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS
TO 20N. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N62W TO
10N65W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS
PRECEDED THE WAVE AXIS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE NOW EXTENDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AND IS COLLOCATED WITH LARGE
AREAS OF CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 61W-74W IMPACTING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. THE NE ISLANDS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N95W TO 16N95W
MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE HAS DAMPENED THE WAVE. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WAVE IS
IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING AND WILL BE DROPPED ON THE NEXT
ANALYSIS. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION IS AT THE SRN
TIP OF THE WAVE OVER INLAND MEXICO FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 93W-95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT
18N TO THE COAST OF SRN SENEGAL NEAR 12N17W TO 10N26W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N26W ALONG 13N33W 9N43W 10N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W AFRICA COAST FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 14W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 21W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NEARLY DISSIPATED TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A CLUSTER OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED OVER THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 88W-91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ALONG 27N.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SPOTTED WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WRN COAST OF
FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ALOFT...MAINLY ELY FLOW COVERS THE NRN HALF OF THE
BASIN AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WRN
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERS THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR
22N98W. A SECOND INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR SE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY. THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE
GULF IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FEW ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA
AND JAMAICA THIS EVENING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS SRN COSTA RICA TO NRN
COLOMBIA. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS BEING IMPACTED BY A TROPICAL WAVE
W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE ISLANDS N OF 14N E OF 74W INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SEE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD CENTER NEAR 17N79W. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 20N60W.
EXPECT THE NE AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO REMAIN MOIST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES MOVING WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N55W...AND A 1031 MB AZORES
HIGH NEAR 39N28W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED N OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN S OF 21N
BETWEEN 60W-72W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR 30N71W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS COVER
THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 33N42W AND 35N28W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 29N BETWEEN 46W-54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net