[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N31W TO 9N35W MOVING W AT 20
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD
CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO 20N BETWEEN 25W-40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 32W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N60W TO 15N62W MOVING W-NW AT
20 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC
TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS AT 15N62W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A
MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
59W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 23N94W TO 15N95W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SW GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER S MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N0W TO 15N8W TO THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N20W TO 13N34W TO 07N50W TO 12N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N
BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-28W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. SEE
ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
30N. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
NE GULF FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 85W-88W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
21N96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND THUS HAS EASTERLY FLOW N OF
25N. EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF TO MOVE TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF IN 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE W AND
DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 68W-74W. THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 83W-85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 79W-84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 39N28W AND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
31N51W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N70W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF THE CENTER FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 67W-74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net