[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230548 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

CORRECTED FOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CINDY IS CENTERED NEAR 49.2N 31.2W AT
23/2100 UTC OR 695 NM N-NW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 29 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE...
UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N58W TO 20N56W MOVING W-NW AT
15 KT. INFRARED SHORTWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC
TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND LESSER ANTILLES. TWO AREAS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE...THE FIRST FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 58W-61W THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO LATE SATURDAY...AND THE
OTHER FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 56W-59W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N33W TO 15N29W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO 17N BETWEEN 26W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N92W TO 22N90W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SW GULF OF MEXICO. ALL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THEREFORE NO CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
11N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N24W TO 13N31W TO 07N44W TO 11N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 12W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 23N. THIS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REACHES
TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC NEAR 28N73W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. THIS EVENING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...BUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO HOLD STRONG WITH AXIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO
29N BY EARLY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SW GULF SATURDAY AND MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 19N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A FEW OVERNIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS S OF EASTERN CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 74W-81W. WESTWARD
MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 82W-88W AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN
THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 19N47W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
WESTWARD ALONG 19N TO OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W.
ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN 66W-77W. THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS ALONG 10N OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS S OF 12N AND OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND
NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 39N30W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER BASIN-WIDE. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N80W
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
65W-75W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N69W.
OTHERWISE THE AZORES HIGH PRESSURE IS LARGE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF 21N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net